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埃森哲研究显示分布式发电威胁电网营收
作者:admin 发布于:2018-11-17 11:02

2017年5月16日,上海——埃森哲(纽交所代码:ACN)最新数字化电网研究显示,民用太阳能光伏和燃料电池等形式的分布式发电,会对公用事业(输配电)企业的收入构成最大威胁。本次研究采访了20多个国家的100余位公用事业高管。该调研每年一次,已连续开展四年。
 
On May 16, 2017, the latest digital grid research of Shanghai-Accenture (NYSE Code: ACN) shows that distributed generation in the form of civil solar photovoltaic and fuel cell will pose the greatest threat to the revenue of public utilities (transmission and distribution) enterprises. This study interviewed more than 100 public utility executives in more than 20 countries. The survey is conducted once a year for four years.
 
 
 
太阳能光伏 燃料电池 可再生能源 太阳能
 
Solar photovoltaic fuel cell renewable energy solar energy
 
 
 
在这次研究中,有58%的受访公用事业高管认为,到2030年,分布式发电将导致企业收入下滑。与欧洲相比,北美和亚太地区的担忧程度更高。原因在于,综合型公用事业机构在这些地区较为普遍,它们面临着售电收入下降和电网运维成本上升的双重压力。
 
In this study, 58% of public utilities executives surveyed believed that by 2030, distributed generation would lead to a decline in corporate revenue. Compared with Europe, North America and the Asia Pacific region are more worried. The reason is that comprehensive public utilities are more common in these areas. They are facing double pressures of declining revenue from electricity sales and rising costs of grid operation and maintenance.
 
 
 
调研显示,有59%的受访高管认为,在分布式发电领域,将给电网接纳能力造成最大压力的是小型分布式发电的能源“产消合一者”(prosumers);排在第二位的是大规模太阳能电厂等中高压互联分布式发电(28%受访者认同)。
 
According to the survey, 59% of the executives surveyed believed that in the field of distributed generation, prosumers of small-scale distributed generation would be the greatest pressure on grid acceptance, followed by medium and high voltage interconnected distributed generation such as large-scale solar power plants (28% of the respondents agreed).
 
 
 
近六成(59%)受访高管预计,随着分布式可再生能源发电的部署,到2020年,他们运营的电网将变得更不稳定,故障将会增加。59%的受访者认为,倘若准备不足,配电网络对分布式发电的接纳容量会在10年内耗尽。企业之后需要追加高昂的资本投入,方可强化配电网络,接纳新的分布式发电容量。面临这样的颠覆性趋势,仅有14%的配电企业对其分布式发电网络的接纳能力有清楚的预估。
 
Nearly 60 per cent (59 per cent) of executives surveyed predicted that by 2020, with the deployment of Distributed Renewable Energy generation, their grid would become more unstable and their failures would increase. Fifty-nine percent of respondents believed that the distribution network's capacity to accept distributed generation would be exhausted within 10 years if they were not prepared enough. In order to strengthen the distribution network and accept new distributed generation capacity, enterprises need to increase capital investment. Faced with such a subversive trend, only 14% of the distribution enterprises have a clear prediction of the acceptance capacity of their distributed generation network.
 
 
 
埃森哲大中华区电力行业董事总经理王靖表示:“随着民用太阳能等技术快速演进,更经济、更环保的分布式发电将更受市场欢迎。光伏与电池储能、需求响应等更具经济效益的能源解决方案相结合,会让能源用户拥有更大话语权,要求配电公司提供更多不同类型的个性化服务。提供输配电服务的公用事业机构不能再‘以不变应万变’,而必须采用基于服务的灵活商业模式,才能开辟新的收入来源。”
 
Wang Jing, managing director of Accenture's Greater China Electric Power Industry, said: "With the rapid evolution of technologies such as civil solar energy, more economical and environmentally friendly distributed generation will be more popular in the market. The combination of photovoltaic with more economical energy solutions such as battery energy storage and demand response will give energy users greater voice and require distribution companies to provide more different types of personalized services. Public utilities that provide transmission and distribution services can no longer'respond to changes with unchanged changes', but must adopt a flexible business model based on services in order to open up new sources of income.
 
 
 
解决之道是分布式发电的智能整合
 
The solution is intelligent integration of distributed generation.
 
 
 
公用事业高管普遍认为,过去两年中,由整合分布式发电带来的业务挑战迅速加剧。为了应对分布式发电的颠覆性影响,大多数公用事业高管预计,未来10年需要在网络容量规划、储能支持和分布式发电运营等领域建立起广泛的能力。
 
Public utilities executives generally believe that the business challenges posed by integrated distributed generation have intensified rapidly in the past two years. In order to cope with the disruptive impact of distributed generation, most public utilities executives expect to build a wide range of capabilities in the areas of network capacity planning, energy storage support and distributed generation operation in the next 10 years.
 
 
 
王靖补充说:“公用事业企业需要采取覆盖全网络的方法来成功整合分布式发电,通过电网扩容获得收益。关键在于,应当在资本投资、运营优化和运维开支间取得平衡,同时也需处理好应用部署和投资智能解决方案的监管要求。这类投入不但可减少电网强化的资本支出和运营成本,还能保证可靠的电力供应。”
 
Wang Jing added: "Public utilities need to adopt a network-wide approach to successfully integrate distributed generation and gain benefits through grid expansion. The key is to strike a balance between capital investment, operation optimization and operation and maintenance expenditure, as well as the regulatory requirements of application deployment and investment intelligent solutions. This kind of investment can not only reduce the capital expenditure and operation cost of power grid strengthening, but also ensure reliable power supply.
 
 
 
埃森哲通过经济模型测算发现,到2030年,面向客户的智能电网解决方案能够减少强化小型分布式发电网络所需的运维投入。在美国和欧洲,这笔资本支出可各减少约30%,即分别节约60亿美元和160亿欧元。
 
Accenture's economic model estimates show that by 2030, customer-oriented smart grid solutions can reduce the operational and maintenance costs required to strengthen small-scale distributed generation networks. In the United States and Europe, this capital expenditure could be reduced by about 30% each, i.e. 6 billion dollars and 16 billion euros, respectively.
 
 
 
在更为动态的运营环境中,电网优化技术能降低成本、提升效率。例如,区位性的激励措施可以推动投资流向电网中需要较高运维成本的部分;而当关键时刻分布式发电的出力下降时,储能和需求响应等服务则能派上用场。
 
In a more dynamic operation environment, power grid optimization technology can reduce costs and improve efficiency. For example, location-based incentives can drive investment to those parts of the grid that require higher operation and maintenance costs, while services such as energy storage and demand response can come in handy when the output of distributed generation declines at critical moments.
 
 
 
埃森哲认为,更加智能化的分布式发电整合,将成为许多配电企业智能电网的基础能力,从而以更经济的解决方案应对行业最紧迫的挑战。
 
Accenture believes that more intelligent integration of distributed generation will become the basic capability of many distribution enterprises'smart grid, so as to meet the most urgent challenges of the industry with more economical solutions.

 


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