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国内成品油下降成定局?有望刷新年内最大跌幅纪录
作者:admin 发布于:2018-10-30 16:43

在经历了让人绝望的“四连涨”之后,国内汽油价格全面突破8元,11月2日24时,国内成品油限价将迎调价窗口本轮成品油下调已成定局。后期原油若无明显消息面利好,有望刷新年内最大跌幅纪录。
 
After experiencing the desperate "four successive increases", domestic gasoline prices have fully broken through 8 yuan, November 2, 24, the domestic product oil price limit will meet the price window of this round of product oil downward has become a foregone conclusion. If there is no obvious news of the crude oil in the late period, it is expected to wipe out the biggest decline in the new year's record.
 
 
 
 
 
从上一次“四连涨”之后,国内油价就有了明显的下降趋势,截止当前,在下一次成品油调价窗口开启以后,国内油价预计将会下跌163元/吨,几乎和上次涨的价格一样,因此,如果把这个降价幅度给保持住,那么下一次油价调整以后,国内大部分地区的油价又将回到7元!
 
Since the last "four consecutive increases", the domestic oil price has a significant downward trend. Up to now, after the next oil price adjustment window opens, the domestic oil price is expected to fall 163 yuan / ton, almost the same as the last price increase. Therefore, if this reduction is maintained, the next oil price adjustment. After that, oil prices will return to 7 yuan in most parts of the country.
 
 
 
本计价周期以来,全球股市下跌引发对需求增长担忧,沙特宣称增产,美国原油库存激增,种种利空消息打压油价,原油出现单日暴跌近5%走势。随后,股市反弹及美国汽柴油库存下降支撑油价小幅走高。受此影响,原油变化率在负值范围内不断下滑,对应下调幅度扩大。截至10月26日第五个工作日,卓创资讯测算,参考原油变化率为-5.89%,对应汽柴油下调262元/吨。按照当前幅度测算,国内92#汽油跌幅在0.21元/升,0#柴油跌幅在0.22元/升。
 
Since the valuation cycle, the decline in global stock markets has raised concerns about demand growth, with Saudi Arabia claiming to increase production, a surge in U.S. crude oil inventories, all sorts of bad news to suppress oil prices, crude oil fell by nearly 5% a day. Subsequently, the stock market rebounded and the US gasoline and diesel stocks declined, supporting oil prices slightly higher. Affected by this, the change rate of crude oil has been declining in the negative range, and the corresponding reduction has been widened. As of October 26, the fifth working day, Zhuochang information estimates that the reference crude oil change rate is - 5.89%, corresponding to the reduction of 262 yuan per ton of gasoline and diesel. According to the current magnitude of the calculation, domestic 92# gasoline fell 0.21 yuan / liter, 0# diesel oil fell 0.22 yuan / liter.
 
 
 
据测算,截至10月26日参考原油品种均价为74.95美元/桶,变化率-6.11%,对应汽柴油价格下调280元/吨。
 
According to estimates, as of October 26, the reference crude oil varieties average price is 74.95 U.S. dollars / barrel, the rate of change - 6.11%, corresponding to the price of gasoline and diesel oil down 280 yuan / ton.
 
 
 
分析师对记者表示,国内成品油市场在历经“四连涨”后,迎来下跌预期,且本轮成品油下调有望刷新年内最大跌幅纪录,此前的最大跌幅出现在2月28日24时,汽柴油分别下调190元/吨、185元/吨。在她看来,目前原油消息面多空交织,暂无强有力消息面支撑,在剩余的5个工作日以内,国际油价有望震荡持稳,同时不排除再度下跌可能,故本轮成品油下调幅度或将进一步拉宽,卓创初步预计,11月2日24时,最终跌幅有望超300元/吨。
 
Analysts told reporters that the domestic refined oil market after the "four consecutive rises", ushered in a fall in expectations, and this round of refined oil downgrades are expected to set a record for the biggest drop in the year, before the biggest decline occurred on February 28 at 24, 190 yuan / ton gasoline and diesel oil were cut, 185 yuan / ton. In her view, the current crude oil news intertwined, temporarily no strong news support, in the remaining five working days, the international oil price is expected to stabilize volatility, while not excluding the possibility of a further decline, so this round of product oil decline may be further widened, Zhuozhuang preliminary forecast, November 2, 24, the final decline is expected. Over 300 yuan / ton.
 
 
 
不过,伴随着国际原油高位回落,国内油价从国庆假期归来后也回归理性整理局面,10月中旬国内主营汽柴油均价为9524、8328元/吨,触及年内高点后,开启了下滑走势,目前国内均价跌至9350、8200元/吨,十几个工作日累积跌幅达174、128元/吨。值得指出的是,以上跌幅是综合了国内油价,就单个地区来看,跌幅远远超过这个幅度。
 
However, with the decline of the international crude oil high, the domestic oil price returned to the rational situation after the National Day holiday. In mid-October, the average price of domestic main gasoline and diesel was 9524, 8328 yuan / ton. After reaching the year's high, the domestic oil price began to decline. At present, the domestic average price has dropped to 9350, 8200 yuan / ton, and the accumulated decline in more than ten working days has reached a peak. 174, 128 yuan / ton. It is worth pointing out that the above decline is a combination of domestic oil prices, in terms of individual regions, the decline is far greater than this.

 


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